29 Mar 2023 03:40:28
2023 MLB Predictions
AL East:
1. Yankees (93-69) [2]
2. Rays (90-72) [5]
3. Blue Jays (88-74) [6]
4. Red Sox (81-81)
5. Orioles (80-82)
AL Central:
1. Guardians (88-74) [3]
2. White Sox (84-78)
3. Twins (83-79)
4. Royals (65-97)
5. Tigers (63-99)
AL West:
1. Astros (102-60) [1]
2. Mariners (92-70) [4]
3. Angels (80-82)
4. Rangers (77-85)
5. Athletics (56-106)
NL East:
1. Phillies (97-65) [2]
2. Braves (93-69) [4]
3. Mets (90-72) [6]
4. Marlins (78-84)
5. Nationals (54-108)
NL Central:
1. Cardinals (94-68) [3]
2. Brewers (85-77)
3. Cubs (76-86)
4. Pirates (68-94)
5. Reds (61-101)
NL West:
1. Dodgers (98-64) [1]
2. Padres (93-69) [5]
3. Diamondbacks (81-81)
4. Giants (78-84)
5. Rockies (63-99)
AL Wild Card: Guardians over Blue Jays (2-0), Mariners over Rays (2-1)
NL Wild Card: Mets over Cardinals (2-0), Braves over Padres (2-1)
ALDS: Guardians over Yankees (3-2), Mariners over Astros (3-2)
NLDS: Phillies over Mets (3-0), Dodgers over Braves (3-1)
ALCS: Mariners over Guardians (4-2)
NLCS: Dodgers over Phillies (4-3)
World Series: Dodgers over Mariners (4-1)
Awards:
AL MVP: Shohei Ohtani - Angels
NL MVP: Ronald Acuna Jr. - Braves
AL Cy Young: Framber Valdez - Astros
NL CY Young: Aaron Nola - Phillies
AL ROY: Gunnar Henderson - Orioles
NL ROY: Corbin Carroll - Diamondbacks
AL MOY: Terry Francona - Guardians
NL MOY: Dave Roberts - Dodgers
1.) 29 Mar 2023
29 Mar 2023 13:04:06
Dang. Things must be rough when you're not even predicting the "AL Equivalent to the Dodgers" aren't even making the playoffs.
And putting the Giants at 78 wins is just trolling at this point. It would be the worst record Gabe Kapler has had with the Giants, all the while with objectively his best team.
But no one has ever accused you of having reasonable takes regarding the Giants, so why start now?
2.) 29 Mar 2023
29 Mar 2023 14:38:05
I mean you obviously watch more Giants than me, but saying this year's roster is the best Kapler has had is interesting. I don't agree with that at all.
They're betting on 75th+ percentile outcomes from a TON of guys to make the postseason.
No trolling, I don't expect them to be very good.
3.) 29 Mar 2023
29 Mar 2023 17:25:54
They have the best bullpen, top to bottom, they've had with Kapler.
They have the deepest rotation I think I can ever recall them having in my time on this earth, with 7 legitimate starting options. This doesn't even include Sean Hjelle or a potential Kyle Harrison addition later on.
They added 30 HR potential in Michael Conforto while losing just Brandon Belt and Evan Longoria offensively. Guys like Yaz and Joc Pederson won't be affected as severely by the shift.
This is, objectively, Kapler's best Giants team.
Your prediction is anywhere from 4-10 wins below the projections of the experts. Meanwhile, you're projecting the White Sox are anywhere from 3-10 wins BETTER?
Yeah, pardon me for not buying what you're selling.
4.) 30 Mar 2023
29 Mar 2023 22:34:08
It can't "objectively" be his best team before they play a single game. That's not what "objectively" means.
If Conforto has "30 HR potential" (playing half his games in SF, mind you) with a 15 total projection from THE BAT X, then boy, the White Sox have 8 regulars with 30-homer potential too.
And the Giants swapped Rodon for Manaea who was more than a full run worse by botERA (well, would you lookie there - look which metric got added to FanGraphs. Legit enough for ya now? ) .
They added Stripling, but does he have a better outlook than DeSclafani did coming into last year? No. Otherwise, the rotation is exactly the same as last year.
The rotation depth is good, but I don't think it moves the needle for them above anything other than a .500 team. Just my opinion.
5.) 30 Mar 2023
30 Mar 2023 01:36:47
And I know you're keen on the opinion of "experts", but ESPN & FanGraphs agree with my last statement.
6.) 30 Mar 2023
30 Mar 2023 12:16:30
ZiPS projected the Giants to win 87 games.
They projected the White Sox to win 74.
But I can fully understand why you'd all of a sudden dismiss ZiPS. I don't entirely blame you.
7.) 30 Mar 2023
30 Mar 2023 12:25:54
As far as Manaea is concerned, no one has accused you of paying attention, so I won't begin to do so either.
However, a few notes:
1. He worked with Driveline this offseason and the effects were pretty obvious this Spring. His velocity is up by 3mph.
2. Manaea has really focused on his sinker, which has been highly effective. That sinker is why the Giants acquired him. It's why they went for Alex Cobb. It's why they like Alex Wood. They seem to know what they are doing when it comes to guys with sinnkers.
3. Cherry-pick whichever bizarre metric you'd wish, here's what we know about Manaea's 2022 season (which, frankly, doesn't matter anymore) : he was a full run LOWER by xERA. He was a half-run lower by FIP. I won't use xFIP with you, because now that it is no longer favorable to your argument, you dismiss is (again, you're the most predictable person ever) .
But surprise, surprise, nearly every projection has Manaea performing at his xERA from 2022. I suspect if they were able to quantify the changes he made this winter, that number would be even lower.
You've already convinced me you don't know what you're talking about, you don't have to continue to sell the point.
8.) 30 Mar 2023
30 Mar 2023 12:30:18
"If Conforto has "30 HR potential" (playing half his games in SF, mind you) with a 15 total projection from THE BAT X, then boy, the White Sox have 8 regulars with 30-homer potential too. "
For someone who LOVES projections*, you sure seem to ignore the realities, don't you?
Of course Conforto is going to be around 15-19 HR via projection systems. The systems can't operate knowing if he's healthy. They can't account for changes he made. Conforto had 14 HR in 2021 and ZERO in 2022. Why would any projection, mathematically, give him a number in the 20s? That makes no sense.
His four seasons prior: 27, 28, 33, 27 (it was 9, but adjusted to 27 for 162 games) . Dang, it's almost like, I don't know, Michael Conforto has 30-home run potential.
Crazy how that works.
*Chi Sox only loves projections when they are favorable to his argument. And he consistently uses the most favorable for White Sox, and the least favorable for the Giants.